It's 1998. In less than two years the so-called Millennium Bug, also known as "The Year 2000" (Y2k) software problem will be upon us. If you haven't already heard, this is a problem with computers that arises from the use of a two-digit field to identify years in the computer's programming (for example 76 = 1976), and that the computer assumes there is only one century - the 1900s. Software written for computers will read (or try to) "00" for the year 2000 as the year 1900. Computer programs that use this two digit date scheme instead of a four digit one will fail or malfunction if the errors are not corrected.
Champions of this problem insist that it will be catastrophic - that everyone on the planet will be seriously affected - and that the world may end as we know it. One website says, "It may be the biggest problem that the modern world has ever faced." Fears range from international telecommunications malfunction to total economic collapse.
The Industry of Hysteria
The negative side of this situation is that "hysteria" is fast becoming one of the biggest marketing tools ever thrust upon an unsuspecting and gullible public. The creation of such "mass hysteria" campaigns has had an excellent history where there is money to be made. For instance, in 1991, the discovery of a computer virus called "Michaelangelo" (so named as it would do its destruction on the birthday of the famous artist, March 6th) spread hysteria "across the planet." Representatives employed in marketing departments of antivirus software companies deemed "Michelangelo" a "very serious threat." On March 5th, 1992, the day before Michelangelo was supposed to strike, John McAfee (of McAfee Antivirus software) appeared on the MacNeil-Lehrer News Hour and debated with virus researcher Charles Rutstein. McAfee stated, "anywhere from 50,000 to five million [computers will suffer], but we're still talking $60 million at the very low end" for virus damage and cleanup costs. Rutstein, on the other hand, estimated that only "ten to twenty thousand [computers] worldwide" could suffer on March 6 when Michelangelo triggers.
Frightened computer users drained computer store shelves of antivirus software, and when every last bit of antivirus software had been purchased, customers flocked to the stores to get books about viruses. Well, March 6th came and went without much impact. Of the 5 million predicted infections, there were only at most 10,000 (note: any computer malfunction on this day would be attributed to the virus). Some say this is because most had protection before the virus hit, but subsequent years (up to 1998) have reported zero infections of the virus to antivirus companies (I personally have never had protection from this virus and balked when everyone else ran out to buy the software. None of my computers have ever been infected by the Michaelangelo virus, or with any virus for that matter). Many other hysterical virus warnings have appeared over the years "all have been inflated myths.
Another great technological myth involves the hysteria stirred up concerning the "HAARP" project. It isn't bad enough the government plainly states their intended purpose of heating up the ionosphere with the huge transmitting station in Alaska, but industrious booksellers would have us believe that the HAARP device is really intended to alter global weather, control our minds, and jam all communications over the entire planet. BSRF has covered this subject thoroughly in some 1000 pages of text and documents (Secrets of Cold War Technology, Declassified Patents of the Cold War and SDI, etc.), but most wanted no part of what we had to say (even though the threat of satellite weapons was emphasized and could have been capitalized on by entrepreneurial hysterecists).
The media has always played a crucial role in the propagation of these myths. This is due to the fact that "fear" and "hysteria" make for the best story material, and that "expert" journalists failed to do any serious research into the subject matter. Even the computer industry's reporting lacks the simple understanding of the scary computer term, "virus". In a recent instance concerning the so-called Millennium Bug, Web Review reporter Stephen Pizzo opened with an ominous warning: "The biggest and baddest computer virus in history is less than four years away from smashing the world's computer systems senseless. It's called the Millennium Virus. Pizzo's story includes a weblink on the phrase "Millennium Virus." It leads to an earlier online story by Vance McCarthy, entitled "Keep the Millennium Virus Off Your Net." And, this statement comes from a website dedicated to the Y2k problem:
"Never before in history have we been able to predict the date of a catastrophe...until now. ..[The] Year 2000 computer bug, (or Y2K). Most are aware of it, but there is widespread lack of concern and knowledge of the magnitude of this problem. The potential large-scale impact is far more serious than is commonly believed. It is an integral, monumental built-in virus, and time bomb that pervades most computers and all of society's systems."
The Millennium bug is obviously not a virus. A computer virus is simply a program that is able to replicate by itself (not necessarily sinister). A program that does not replicate is not a virus, regardless of whether it does damage to a computer or not. In order for a computer virus to actually do anything, it first has to be run on the computer " it doesn't do anything all by itself until it is run by the user.
Further Y2k hysteria from computer media professionals can be found in the January '97 issue of PC/Computing. Here they warn of economic catastrophe " a full-blown Depression " in three years: "The Gartner Group estimates that [the year 2000,] problem could cost U.S. business as much as $240 billion dollars. [this figure has since jumped to $600 billion] As a result of the huge price tag, it's possible that as many as 10 percent of all businesses won't survive the transition."
Book publishers have also rushed to get
in quick on the marketing hysteria surrounding Y2k (see the reference section
for several examples). Michael Hyatt, author of the new release, The Millennium
Bug: How to Survive the Coming Chaos, published by Regnery Publishing writes,
"[The Y2k crisis is potentially] the most significant, extensive,
and disruptive crisis we have ever faced. Almost every aspect of our lives
is regulated, controlled, monitored, enhanced, or made more convenient
or efficient by computers." Hyatt spells out three scenarios he sees
as most probable " Brownout, Blackout, and Meltdown. Each of these
is discussed in detail, "In Blackout, I predicted hunger as a result
of the shipping and transportation industry's inability to distribute food.
In Meltdown, it is starvation. Without electricity, telecommunications,
and banking, the long arm of Washington will have zero effect on most local
situations. If this scenario comes to pass, the public will live in a state
of terror."
How did we ever survive before the advent
of computers!
Most of the published books are by authors
who seem to have some stake in the Y2k industry, either as consultants
or programmers, and I could not find a review of one of these books that
is unfavorable.
The Day the Earth Stands Still
By far the title of the "worst offender"
associated with hyping the Y2k problem goes to Gary North. Deemed by other
Y2k web authors as "alarmist and controversial", North was recently
featured on one of the most popular late night talk radio shows in the
U.S. (talk radio is by far the number one culprit of spreading hysteria).
Mr. North runs a website called, "Gary North,s Y2K Links and Forums"
with the subtitle: "The Year 2000 Problem: The Year the Earth Stands
Still." While he might be esteemed for his ability to stir things
up, he lacks credibility when it comes to several of his statements concerning
the Y2k problem. For example, he begins the essay by saying, "At 12
midnight on January 1, 2000 (a Saturday morning), most of the world,s mainframe
computers will either shut down or begin spewing out bad data. Most of
the world,s desktop computers will also start spewing out bad data."
The emphasis on the words "most" are mine. This statement is
completely false. First of all, most computers have no Y2k problem at all.
The major problem (if there is to be one) with Y2k will be with old software
" software that was written many years ago for specialized applications,
and was generally programmed with old computer tongues such as COBOL. Some
companies may run into problems if they don,t fix this, but if they are
in the business of making money (yes, they are...) you can bet they will
have the problem licked before there is any indication they will lose their
shirts. For instance, major banks have already sent Y2k patches to vendors
who use credit card data capture systems. They are well ahead of the game.
Most of the world,s desktop computers
will NOT start "spewing out bad data" either. Since the majority
of the world uses Microsoft products, and Microsoft long ago created patches
and upgrades for any date scheme problem that may have occurred, there
will be NO PROBLEM. Yet North claims, "Uncorrected PC architecture
DOS and Windows-based desktop computers will revert back either to 1980
or 1984. They can be corrected briefly, but as soon as a PC is turned off,
the correction dies. It will reboot to 1980 or 1984. Meanwhile, PC programs
must be redesigned." His statement here is based on a simple test
that can be run on any PC, supposedly telling you whether or not your system
will be a Y2k problem. You first set the date to 12/31/1999 and the time
to 11:55pm and wait for the clock to roll over. Then reboot the computer,
and check the date. Most older computers will revert back to 1980, or the
more Orwellian 1984. But, what Mr. North doesn,t tell you is that one simply
has to go into the BIOS and change the date (when you turn on your computer,
the microprocessor passes control to the BIOS program first, and then loads
your operating system). When you first turn on your computer, it usually
says something like, "press <del to enter setup". If you press
the "delete" key, this will take you to the BIOS configuration
where you can set the date. I,ve done this on all the computers at BSRF,
and even the old 386,s running MSDOS (which is compliant back toversion
3.2) had no problem turning over to the year 2000. But, many so-called
experts in the computer business would have you believe that you will need
to upgrade to a new computer to fix this simple "tick-over"problem,
and there are even some firms selling hardware you can install (for an
unknown price) that fixes the so-called "problem." A good deal
of evidence exists that millions of dollars are being spent by companies
to "upgrade" (i.e., replace) their PC based computer systems
to make them Y2k "compliant." In all but the very oldest equipment
(which most institutions have upgraded long ago), these replacements aren,t
necessary, but as you can see the computer industry greatly benefits from
propagating such deliberately scary myths.
North continues by quoting Ed Yourdon,
a mainframe computer programmer and author of two dozen books on programming.
He and his daughter have written a new book called Time Bomb 2000. North
says that, "[Yourdon] warns programmers that it may soon be time to
quit their big city jobs and head for safer places...the exodus of programmers
will begin no later than 1999." More hysterical quotes include, "Months
before January 1, 2000, the world,s stock markets will have crashed. Who
is going to leave his money in his bank if he thinks his bank,s computer
is not reliable? A worldwide run on the banks will create havoc in the
investment markets. People who have placed their retirement hopes in stocks
and mutual funds will see their dreams vanish. How reliable will stocks
and mutual funds be if the banking system has closed down? How will you
even get paid? How will your employer get paid? How will governments get
paid?" Head for the hills, as North prophesies Armageddon. All very
captivating reading, but written by a historian with no programming knowledge,
and littered with technical inaccuracies.
What About Embedded Chips?
Embedded electronic chips, (such as the
PC BIOS) that are programmed at the factory, are in everything from automobiles
to VCRs, and no one seems to know if they will work past the year 2000.
But, many of these embedded chips are either not date intensive or not
in systems that will create significant problems, while some others could
present problems or at least an inconvenience. Electronic locks, power
generation/transmission/control systems (in utilities), elevators, telephone
switches, and other major systems, as well as smaller systems or appliances
could be at risk of failure.
In this case, I have had a very difficult
time getting any real information on this potential problem. On several
websites supposedly containing links to examples of such problems, I have
continually found the statement, "This document contains no information,"
or "The website or webpage you were attempting to access does not
exist on our servers." For instance, I did a check on "Satellites
and Global Positioning System (GPS) embedded chip problem" on one
website, only to get the message returned, "File not found"(I
later found this on the Navstar Global Positioning System Joint Program
Office,s website, "All GPS satellites found to be Millennium [Y2K]
Rollover compliant and transparent to End of Week (EOW) Rollover").
Other examples that were actually found
were extremely suspect such as: "according to an April 17, 1997, report
from the state of Texas, an estimated 25% of fire trucks built since 1985
could fail to start on Jan. 1, 2000 [because of faulty embedded chips]."
Further down the page one reads, "in the official version of [the]
June, 1998 [article], someone was just speculating "wondering "
at the meeting if some " no percentage mentioned " fire trucks
might possibly be in trouble in 2000, and somehow, this got posted in the
minutes..." Another article warns of impending disaster:
A recent and dramatic Y2k embedded system
example was brought to the attention of the readers of the St. Louis Post
Dispatch on 11/19/1997 in a column by Virginia Hick that was only available
on the web for a short time. The article writes of an interview with Peter
de Jager who was speaking locally on Y2k issues. Hick writes: "De
Jager talked recently with an executive of a company that makes a volatile
gas " he would not identify the company more specifically " who
told de Jager how his plant discovered the seriousness of faulty embedded
chips. The plant found a chip that failed when the date was moved forward.
When the chip failed, it shut off a valve that would have shut down the
cooling system. A cooling system shutdown, the executive said, would have
caused an explosion. That was great news,, de Jager said. Because they
checked - there will be no explosion. They're replacing the chips., De
Jager worries about the companies that are not checking."
No company name, no positive ID of the
chip, and no proof that any of this actually happened. The story is completely
vague and very suspect. Peter de Jager is most outspoken on the Y2k problem
and owns the very commercial website, called "The Year 2000 Information
Center"at http://www.year2000.com.
Several other examples or scenarios of
embedded chip problems exist, but all are vague or really inconsequential
(like your automatic coffee maker, after the year 2000, may not work properly
and force you to get up and turn it on manually). Still, it seems no one
has yet come forth with one positively identified instance of a faulty
embedded chip(not excluding that at some point this may actually happen).
One disgruntled programmer,s response to this was, "The status quo
may be philosophically and psychologically entertaining, but it is scientifically
absurd, and...executives and managers are entirely correct [to say]: show
us an [embedded chip failure] or get out of our face."
The Burgeoning Y2K Industry
Further evidence that the Y2k problem
may not be the impending global disaster many would have you believe, but
a marketing enterprise motivated by big business can be found on several
websites "devoted exclusively to the burgeoning Y2K industry."
One can find a multitude of products created exclusively out of the Y2k
myth such as the "Y2k phone Card", "Uh-Oh! - The Y2K Game",
Year 2000 CountDownTM Watch, Year 2000 Video and Audio Tapes, Year 2000
Toolkit/Handbook, etc. There is even a special 150 page report (Xephon
Special Report) that "every business should have", and can be
ordered for a mere $265.00. That,s about $1.76 a page!
If you don,t believe this yet, check
out the "Year 2000 Information Center Stock Index." It will give
you stock quotes on some 200 companies that are in business specifically
to handle the so-called Y2k problem. Even C-NET Magazine stated, "Fortunes
will be made by companies that specialize in fixing the millennium bug."
There is also a section called "Jobs 2000" which opens with:
"Welcome to Jobs 2000, the labor exchange devoted exclusively to the
burgeoning Y2K industry."
Mundus vult decipi
As the millennium approaches, I imagine
we will see the advent of more terrifying cabals and doomsday prophesies
emerging " mainly from those who stand to profit monetarily "
and the scarier the scenario, the more people will be willing to accept
it. The Y2k problem could be one that is destined to be self-fulfilling
" that is, its belief will effect the results already foretold. There
could be a run on banks (some banks are already preparing for this); the
Stock Market could crash; the IRS, by non-compliance to fix their Y2k problem,
could be out of commission (I don,t see the problem there); Computer programmers
may flock to secluded hideaways (no problem again). A whole host of real
problems may be created by something that wouldn,t have been much of a
problem if it weren,t for our increasing reliance on the technology itself.
This suggests the real Y2k problem is a people problem " people who
misunderstand the technology, have total reliance on this technology, and
are willing to embrace the idea of societal collapse due to technological
failure. With hysteria as the fuel of the masses, anything could happen.
If we continue to welcome radio talk show paroxysms, and ranting internet
madness, then we deserve the frightful outcomes that these questionable
venues are in business to promote. Remember, there is no specific media
conspiracy involved here, it is simply what many people want to hear and
believe. Mundus vult decipi " "the world wants to be deceived".
Gary North's Rebuttal: http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/2853
And, <http://www.borderlands.com/Y2k.htmhere
is my response: Y2k, Gary
North, and Maybe Something Other than
Gloom & Doom!
BSRF <http://www.borderlands.com/Home
References
Websites:
Y2k immunity Website: http://www.sitewave.net/y2ksb/
dedicated to the
relatively simple Y2K solution of turning
back the computers clock and
ageing (and unaging) the data appropriately.
"With the announcement of Y2K
Immunity, the Y2K doom and gloomers have
nowhere to hide, except perhaps,
for a short while, in adhominum attacks,
flames, and off the cuff
dismissal. The fact is, their role in
making the public aware of the
problem has now been eclipsed."
Dealing With The Year 2000 Problem:
http://www.erols.com/steve451/doom.htm#Contagion
Computer Virus Myths Home Page: http://kumite.com/myths/
CNET personalities - Don Steinberg -
2/26/97:
http://www.cnet.com/Content/Voices/Steinberg/022697/index.html
Y2K Cinderella Project " "Dedicated
to the Fairy Tale Ending. An
investigation and information exchange
of zero-cost, minimal-impact
computing solutions to address the Year
2000 problem":
http://parsifal.membrane.com/y2k/cinder.html
Intel Based PC BIOS Test for Year 2000
Problems:
http://www.gatech.edu/year2000/biostest.htm
(tests you can run to see if
your computer is a Y2k problem with simple
solutions: FREE)
Navstar Global Positioning System Joint
Program Office:
http://www.laafb.af.mil/SMC/CZ/homepage/y2000/y2k/
Internet Info for Real People - The Year
2000 Bug:
<http://www.thebee.com/bweb/iinfo28.htmhttp://www.thebee.com/bweb/iinfo28.htm
The Year 2000 Information Center: http://www.year2000.com/y2k-main1.html
Gary North's Y2K Links and Forums: http://www.garynorth.com/
Future, Doomsday, Year2000: http://www.angelfire.com/or/truthfinder/
Westergaard Year 2000 Daily Email Alert:
http://www.y2ktimebomb.com/index.htm
Fernlink 2000 Millennium BIOS Board Reviews:
http://www.implement.co.uk/biospres.htm
(PC Board Y2k fix for BIOS that
costs money but no price could be found??)
Motherboard BIOS and year 2000 compatiblility:
http://www.freetech.com/SUPPORT/TECH_BB/Tsvst198.htm
Books
Not a complete list, and not necessarily
used for reference, but to show
how publishing companies have jumped
on the Y2k bandwagon. All books
listed can be purchased through the Westergaard
Year 2000 Book Center at
<http://www.y2ktimebomb.com/Bookshttp://www.y2ktimebomb.com/Books
or
through Amazon.com:
The Complete Guide to Software Testing
by William Hetzel
Computer Crisis 2000 by W. Michael Fletcher
The Computer Time Bomb by Minda Zetlin
Electric Utilities and Y2K by Rick Cowles
Fatal Defect: Chasing Killer Computer
Bugs by Ivars Peterson
Finding and Fixing Your Y2K Problem:
A Guide for Small Businesses and
Organizations by Jesse Feiler
Managing 00: Surviving the Year 2000
Computing Crisis by Peter De Jager
and Richard Bergeon
Meltdown 2000: 25 Things You Must Know
to Protect Yourself and Your
Computer by Lawrence Cleenewerk and Pamela
D. Jacobs
The Millennium Bug: How to Survive the
Coming Chaos by Michael S. Hyatt
Practical Methods for Your Year 2000
Problem: The Lowest Cost Solution by
Robert B. Chapman
Software Change Impact Analysis by S.A.
Bohner and Robert S. Arnold
Software Engineering Economics by Barry
W. Boehm
Solving the Year 2000 Crisis by Patrick
McDermott
Solving the Year 2000 Problem by Jim
Keogh
A Survival Guide for the Y2K Problem
by Jim Lord
Time Bomb 2000: What the Year 2000 Computer
Crisis Means to You by Edward
and Jennifer Yourdon
2001 Questions and Answers About the
Year 2000 Problem by William N. Franklin
Y2K: It's Already Too Late by Jason Kelly
Year 2000: Best Practices for Y2K Millenium
Computing by Dick Lefkon
Year 2000 Compliance: A Guide to Successful
Implementation by Alea Fairchild
The Year 2000 Computer Crisis: An Investor's
Survival Guide by Tony Keyes
Year 2000 Computer Crisis: Law, Business,
Technology by Michael D. Scott,
Warren S. Reid
The Year 2000 Computing Crisis by Jerome
and Marilyn Murray
Year 2000 Crisis: Developing a Successful
Plan for Information Systems by
Janet G. Butler
The Year 2000 Problem Solver by Bryce
Ragland
Year 2000 Software Crisis: Solutions
for IBM Legacy Systems by Keith A. Jones
The Year 2000 Software Crisis: the Continuing
Challenge by William Ulrich
and Ian Hayes
The Year 2000 Software Problem by Capers
Jones
The Year 2000 Software Systems Crisis:
Challenge of the Century by William
Ulrich and Ian Hayes
Year 2000 Solutions for Dummies by Kelly
C. Bourne
Other References
The Computer and the Incarnation of Ahriman
by David Black, St. George
Publications, Sring Valley, NY, 1981
(although written in 1981, most of
the information in this book is timeless).
Letter from Wade Griffith, Vice President
and Year 2000 Project Manager
for United Security Bank.
Various conversations and interviews
with computer salespeople,
programmers, and Y2k consultants.
----
Rebuttals
Frank Altomonte
<FAltomon@jefco.com 11-29-98
Thank you for posting this evocative article. The author
no doubt is a very naive and non technical individual. That means he is
not working for a living in the computer industry. His main flaw is taking
the world of mainframe computers lightly. The financial community runs
on the backs of large IBM 3090 MVS EXA computers and the like. This really
is not a PC problem. PCs can't supply the horsepower yet. The financial
community for the last 30 years has relied on this form of technology and
the main languages are Cobol and BAL (Assembler). It would not be unusual
to find programs this old in some of these installations but it would be
rare. The problem though was still being propagated up until as late as
last year. Then there is the problem of lost source code which I know is
out there because I have had to deal with it. Fortunately we had archives
to rely on. Who knows what some of these large mammouth companies are doing.
All I know is that sort of thing can knock you off schedule. It is all
a matter of survival. The small companies who are not doing anything will
fold. The larger ones that are publicly owned are probably on top of it.
But we still won't know until the big dress rehearsal for steetwide testing
begins in mid March for most of Wall Street. That's where the communications
and downloading links will be tested with forward aged data and all system
hardware clocks moved ahead. I'll keep you posted. The problem of embedded
chips is also pooh poohed. Citing no available evidence is not evidence
of no problem. Here once again the chip vendors/makers I believe are keeping
silent, preparing to file bankruptcy rather than solve the problems or
fight litigation. I am sure giants like Intel are well protected shifting
all liabilities to their distributors. But who really knows. Mr. Theroux
sure doesn't.
All the Best,
Frank.
------
Date: Fri, 20 Nov 1998 22:51:05 -0800
From: "Mark C. Edwards" <edwards@abac.com
To: eotl@west.net
Subject: Re: Y2K Hysteria article
Jeff,
I read the Y2K hysteria article. The author's approach
is simple
minded. I can cite a real, solid problem for every simplistic
example he has offered. Children's Hospital in San Diego
just tested
all the equipment they could identify with potential
Y2K problems.
The test found that 37% of the equipment locked up on
the rollover to
Jan 1, 2000. The replacement cost of the defective equipment
alone at
that single hospital is $47 million. I hope the article
doesn't result
in people running off thinking that "THEY"
will fix it. The ever
popular "THEY" won't be finished in time.
The PC clock calendar chip in AT class or later machines
stores the
year in either packed BCD or binary format. Packed BCD
implementations
of the BIOS will rollover from 99 to 00. Binary implementations
use
the convention 1900 + binary value = year. Those implementations
will
rollover properly. The BIOS user interface in older
machines presents
a two digit year rather than a 4 digit. Those versions
are going to
fail. The BIOS calendar should also be checked to see
if it knows
February has 29 days in 2000 (if you can set the year
successfully).
There are NEW motherboards manufactured in the last 6
months whose
BIOS routines still have Y2K defects. The obviously
check of setting
to Dec 31, 1999 at 11:55 while observing in the BIOS
setup panel is
a quick check for rollover. If all is well here, you
have only covered
1/3 of the issue. You still must check the operating
system routines
for Y2K compatibility. When that is Ok, you have to
check all your
application programs to ensure they don't do stupid two
digit date
arithmetic. Fixing the applications may also require
fixing associated
data encoded with two digits for a year. This just scratches
the
surface of the basic PC problem with Y2K. The PC problem
is truly
"small potatoes" in the big scheme of Y2K issues.
Thanks for the great site.
Mark C. Edwards <edwards@abac.com
Voice: 619-646-3614 Fax: 619-546-6190
http://users.abac.com/edwards
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