Book Review: IF THEN: How the Simulmatics Corporation Invented the Future

Reviewed by paulml

IF THEN: How the Simulmatics Corporation Invented the Future by Jill Lepore, Liveright Publishing Corp., 2020, ISBN: 9781631496103

It is reasonable to assert that attempts to predict and manipulate human behavior using computers is a recent phenomenon, started by companies like Facebook and Cambridge Analytica.  According to this book, such an assertion is also very wrong.

It was the early 1960s, the days of UNIVAC and ENIAC.  A corporation called Simulmatics was part of John F. Kennedy's presidential campaign.  They were the first to use computer simulation and prediction to chop the U.S. electorate into hundreds of categories.  That way, they could test various campaign slogans and statements to see how they would work.  It led to much speculation about computers taking over America and about office workers being fired by electronic bosses.  In 1961, Simulmatics targeted segmented consumers with customized advertising messages.

The book goes on to explore how, in 1963, Simulmatics attempted to simulate the entire economy of a developing nation, with a view towards halting socialism.  The Vietnam War was raging.  So in 1965, Simulmatics opened an office in Saigon.  They planned on engaging in psychological research as a way to wage war with computer-run data (these were also the days of Robert McNamara's "whiz kids" at the Pentagon).  Back in America in 1967 and 1968, the company attempted to build a machine to predict race riots.  It went bankrupt soon after.

This is a fascinating book.  It illuminates a lesser-known bit of American history.  Attempts to predict human behavior using computers have gone on for many years, even by White liberals (like the employees at Simulmatics).  This book is very highly recommended.